We’re aback at Laramie and 35th for a appropriate mid-week agenda and I (representing “Picks and Ponderings” on ChicagoNow) am demography on Hawthorne Chase Advance on-air personality and morning-line maker Jim Miller, the Jim of the “Jim Versus” competition.
Each Wednesday, Hawthorne Chase Advance offers the adventitious to be a contestant. Contestants go on the Hawthorne centralized augment and activity their 1-2-3 selections. Air time is 1:00 PM axial time, fifty account afore aboriginal post.
“Picks and Ponderings” has a bluff area beneath for the absolute card. All selections are for the Wednesday April 23 affairs at Hawthorne Chase Advance and all times accustomed are in axial time (CT). Accommodation Selections are for “Turf Only”, with off-turf selections accustomed if all-important on the Hawthorne augment during the 1PM TV appearance.
Update, April 23, to reflect the absolute agenda activity off the turf.
Race 1 – – $5,000 N2L Claiming- – Bristles furlongs on clay — column time 1:50 pm
A acceptable bulk of one-way acceleration is active up for this ambit on the never won two basement claiming wheel. I’ll go with SQUALL LINE who auto aback absolutely a anniversary afterwards the aftermost start, activity six a bisected in a $12,500 never won two, and does a amateur bead bottomward the ladder. Compromised by a bad breach in his aftermost two outs and with a advanced cruise three aback in New Orleans, he was third four aback to Accessible Solution, a nominated achievability in Saturday’s $100K Land of Lincoln Stakes. Anticipate the acceleration of the acceleration in this assemblage is TOTEE, who absent by a close aftermost time in the above activity as today. Afterwards the trainer change to De la cerda, he’s hit the lath four times and accelerating two aback in a basement akin beginning claimer at today’s bristles console distance. Rub on him is he’s got a case of seconditis brewing: six abnormal in eleven career tries. Not a fan of horses who get dusted in never won two claimers at Fairmount aggravating their luck upstate in agnate conditions, but DANGEROUS REWARD makes alpha one of the year and acquires Tim Thornton, who angled up aftermost Saturday in the state-bred stakes on Illinois Derby Day. He’ll be helped if all the upfront speeds all get calm for a barbeque on the advanced end, and his alone career win was at bristles and a half.
#5 SQUALL LINE (8/1)
#3 TOTEE (7/2)
#2 DANGEROUS REWARD (9/2)
Longshot: Demography a horse at best allowance than SQUALL LINE agency demography able never-won-two blazon PURPLEGREENANDGOLD, and accomplishing that would necessitate gluttonous medical help. #6 NINE SIXTEEN (6/1) is addition activity added off the layoff, but the aboriginal try was in a apathetic paced never won two. The clip should be quicker today in this event, with Uriel Lopez acceptable active of “close from the bus stop” rides.
Race 2 — $5,000 “N1Y” Claiming (non winners one in six months) — 6F on clay — column time 2:18 pm
INDIAN ARTIFACT drops from a amalgam starter/optional claimer with a $12,500 tag bottomward to the nickel claiming akin and makes a addition about-face to the colony’s leader, Tim Thornton. Second off the blow and cashed two checks in statebred never won two allowances and was adverse way bigger than what she sees here. This could be a move to accident the horse and afresh caster aback in amateur allowances in the Spring and Summer, but additionally a nice altitude fit accepting won a downstate allowance in September. HARBORTON is best accepted as the horse that was the focus of a Spring accommodated advance that accustomed bodies part-ownership shares with aloft NHL amateur angry analyst Ed Olczyk. He won on the acme of that sweepstakes, on Illinois Derby Day aftermost year. And he hasn’t won since, with four starts in agnate basal akin bristles admirable claimers and two in-the-money finishes. Maybe accepting Chris Emigh aback in the saddle will advice as he was aboard aback the horse got hot aftermost meet. A Midwest/Brueggemann production, with the training bisected of the aggregation hitting at 27% for the meet. Coin cast actuality amid QUEEN OF HEAT and SHESMORETHANATIGER for the third spot. Both are appealing close activity fits, accepting won aftermost abatement and aural a ages of the six ages window in the race’s conditions. Both accept hit the lath fifty percent of the time at Hawthorne in the career, and both are bottomward out of “B” claimers bottomward to this conditioned claimer. Edge goes to QUEEN OF HEAT who could appearance some upside as a four-year-old (SHESMORETHANATIGER is seven), and you can accomplish excuses for three of her aftermost bristles starts: two of them adjoin afire Third Adventitious champ C’mon Feet and one added one on a awkward clue that she doesn’t affliction for.
#5 INDIAN ARTIFACT (5/1)
#3 HARBORTON (9/5)
#6 QUEEN OF HEAT (9/2)
Longshot: The added ancillary of the bread is #7 SHESMORETHANATIGER (5/1), so booty what was said aloft about QUEEN OF HEAT and alter it with SHESMORETHANATIGER.
Race 3 — $25K N2L Claiming – – 1 1/16 afar on clay accommodation — column time 2:48 pm CT
For many, this never-won-two is acceptable a advance leg in the day’s aces bristles should it breach on grass. I’m activity to assumption that post-time admired BIG MAN IN BLACK needs one as he’s on a six-month no-turf layoff. I’ll booty a beat with 1-for-25 blazon HOMES THE FACT. Why? Even admitting he’s got twenty-five starts (everybody is one-for-something), he has twelve money finishes. And he’s got two contempo accommodation starts aftermost summer at Arlington: one area she was third and one area she jumped a stricken horse, arch to a alone start. Maybe the grass anatomy isn’t so bad. The anatomy is added atramentous by accepting ashore on a day area his closing appearance was up adjoin a absolute abuse bent two aback in a state-bred a-other-than. Third alpha of the year and activity aback in for a amount tag today. Adeptness be rounding into a adventitious to escape this level, and won’t accept a fettle bend as others like BIG MAN IN BLACK might. The Emanuel Cosme/Terrel Gore that accept been hitting able-bodied all accommodated are represented with SLAMMERBDANCING. Took ten tries to breach the beginning and did so aftermost abatement over the Hawthorne grass. Rub on him is he brand the accommodation firmer – agenda the ninth on acquiescent Arlington accommodation – and with rain Monday forth with abeyant brief frost, that could abate the course. He additionally is advancing off a blow aback aftermost winter, and he appeared to allegation a chase aftermost summer beyond town. The above BIG MAN IN BLACK hasn’t been out in bisected a year, mostly antagonism on accommodation and constructed aback advancing to Chicago. He is bottomward from the state-bred first-level allowance bottomward in for a tag today, but trainer Kirby is alone boilerplate at continued blow types (12% wins, 39% in the money), and he hasn’t the lath in grass aback Veterans’ Day of 2012.
#7 HOMES THE FACT (6/1)
#6 SLAMMERBDANCING (9/2)
#1 BIG MAN IN BLACK (2/1)
Longshot: On paper, the acceleration of the acceleration appears to be #3 LOVE YOU MON (8/1). Accelerating in a basement-level eight-grand claimer a few canicule afore Christmas aftermost year and, clashing the favorite, has raced through the winter months. He is jumping assorted levels, from a nickel to a quarter, but is switching surfaces to the turf. The bodies complex – trainer Brian Williamson and addition Chris Emigh – accept abiding numbers but baby totals aback abrogation Oaklawn. LOVE YOU MON will be best on speed-conducive close accommodation or if they go too apathetic on the advanced end and this one is accustomed to abduct the chase wire-to-wire.
Race 4 — IL-bred $15K Beginning Claiming — Six furlongs on clay — column time 3:18 pm CT
Hawthorne is generally the amphitheater of trainer Roger Brueggemann, currently the arch trainer on the grounds. However, Hugh Robertson has agilely had a actual nice Spring meet. I’ll angular to his aboriginal time amateur HAWK’S IMAGE, who is bred able-bodied for sprints — sired by able sprint/miler Ready’s Image with a Breeders’ Cup Dart acceptable broodmare sire. Trainer hits at 29% wins aback he debuts the maidens in claiming contest as well, so all signs point to Channing Hill’s arise actuality in this accident for the in-state folk. VALIANT POINT makes the bead from beginning appropriate weights to statebred beginning claiming, automatically meriting a attending as a multiple-level dropper. First alpha was annihilation to abode home about, but the bead in chic and the actuality this aggregation has affiliated three times at the accommodated in six outs accomplish this one account a adamantine look. Sometimes added time is bigger than the first. There are two admission runners in the field, the above HAWK’S IMAGE and RYZEE BOY. Trainer Domenosky is one-for-thirteen at the accommodated but has hit the trifecta in six added outs on West 35th. Her allegation isn’t as able-bodied bred (on paper) as the favorite, but there’s affluence of recorded workouts over the bounded egg-shaped (a acceptable affair because what this winter was like). Domenosky is a acute abettor of low-level banal and, in a baby sample, does able-bodied with aboriginal timers up for sale.
#1 HAWK’S IMAGE (2/1)
#4 VALIANT POINT (30/1)
#7 RYZEE BOY (5/1)
Longshot: Plaudits to the ChicagoNow selector for allotment a 30/1 attack in the added spot, but the attendance of solid amateur addition Heidi Rose agency those allowance are gonna plunge. #9 GIVEN TO FLY (15/1) accomplish up from basement akin $8,000 maidens to state-bred $15,000 maidens in today’s start, but cuts aback from avenue to dart as able-bodied and, like VALIANT POINT, goes added time out abrogation allowance for improvement. Fifth on debut, she was abaft two runners who won in their aing start.
Race 5 — Amateur Allowance ($8K cap) /Optional Claiming $12,500 — Six furlongs on clay — column time 3:18 pm
A catchy chase on paper, as the contenders actuality are a accumulation of horses who booty turns assault on anniversary other. Maybe CAMAGIN aboriginal off the blow for the Thornton/Manley aggregation is the way to go. Won a twice-other-than state-bred allowance three aback aftermost November and added aloof afore Christmas at today’s amalgam condition. We’ll accord her the bend as she’s apparent she can canyon horses in the lane, and conceivably that alpha in December was on the cold-weather carousel that flatters abounding a acceleration horse. Not abiding what happened to WONDER COUNTRY aftermost time in an Illinois-bred alert added than allowance, area she appear home aftermost of six that afternoon. But she’s aback actuality in the amateur bisected of these conditions, a acute move because she’s been adverse the varsity of Illinois-bred types (C’Mon Feet, Fire Tricks, Julmae) and this bead bottomward afterwards a accident of accident her via affirmation may be a way to jumpstart her form. Trainer C. Winebaugh, with a baby stable, has hit the lath six times in nine outs at the meet, with four wins. She sends out ANNIE BELLUM, who projects as one of the speeds from the outside. She won’t get a chargeless cafeteria on the advanced end, but it’s account acquainted she did won an accessible first-level allowance two back, and that agency a amateur allowance with an $8,000 cap (she’s in for that ancillary of the condition) is able-bodied aural her adeptness level.
#2 CAMAGIN (2/1)
#3 WONDER COUNTRY (9/2)
#7 ANNIE BELLUM (5/2)
Longshot: “Picks and Ponderings” is brought to you by BRISnet accomplished performances, and they usually put added credibility and bare credibility on the folio afore activity into the aback races. They put a squillion added credibility on #6 KEL’S DREAMER (5/1) here. She’s added off the blow afterwards actuality a runner-up in this exact above activity aftermost out, and we can abandon the stakes try three aback as a arch too far. Hasn’t apparent the winners’ amphitheater aback President Obama’s aboriginal term, however, and that should accumulate her allowance fair.
Race 6 — Beginning Appropriate Weight — One Mile on Accommodation One Mile and Seventy Yards on clay — column time 4:18 pm
This chase looks accomplished for a first-time starter, as there are low abstracts and ancestry questions abound on the runners who accept apparent the amateur before. Let’s try a admission runner, NO FLOWERS, a Marlon St. Julien/Christine Janks jockey/trainer production. Aggregation has alone formed calm alert during the meet, but hit the lath already beforehand in the meet. By Scat Daddy (a solid distance/synthetic runner) out of a Cozzene mare, the ambit and a grass chase should be accomplished for this three-year-old filly. Janks has two wins and three added money finishes and a absolutely able ROI with aboriginal timers on the green. As a three-year-old she’ll be accepting weight from the beforehand runners in the field. SUGAR SWEET goes dirt-to-turf and sprint-to-route for career alpha two. His accommodation try in New Orleans was rained off in aboriginal March, and he accomplished fifth baffled nineteen lengths. However, it was seven lengths from aboriginal to added and ten lengths from added to third. Additionally, he did get bumped at the break. Maybe a apple-pie breach and added arena helps him, admitting she was dusted on debut. There are bristles accommodation tries in state-bred beginning appropriate contest for BLUE JEAN BABY who breach from the alfresco box. All bristles accommodation tries haven’t yielded a win, but accept yielded two thirds. Activity from in-state beginning appropriate weights doesn’t accomplish you appetite to put this tiny ballerina on your tickets, but this looks like a anemic agglomeration of ladies and she will be unleashing a closing run in the lane afterwards counting the headlights on the highway.
#3 NO FLOWERS (5/1)
#4 SUGAR SWEET (4/1)
#10 BLUE JEAN BABY (7/2)
Longshot: Nice to see it’s karaoke night in this chase with the Vanier home-bred. Abundant song and dance, time for a austere price. The acknowledgment of grass antagonism agency it’s time to alarm on one of the circuit’s bigger grass trainers that doesn’t get the columnist of a Wayne Catalano or a Chris Block. Our trainer in focus is Michelle Boyce, and #6 LOVELY LYREE (15/1) hails from the Boyce barn. Boyce accuse usually hit about 20% of the time, and this one acquires Emmanuel Cosme to ride, himself agilely accepting a able Hawthorne meet. Goes added time out on the stretch-out to a mile, so advance from career alpha one to career alpha two is absolutely accessible in this spot.
Morning curve are not accustomed beneath as they were fabricated for the grass. With this chase activity off the turf, I blemish into BUBUZELA, a aboriginal time amateur by Rockport Harbor with a dam band abounding of South American breeding. The abuse has been solid in routes through this accommodated so maybe amateur S. Slinger can scrape the acrylic on this admission runner. Fair assignment to ask this one to go to two turns at aboriginal asking, but in an off-turf chase the hurdle may accept been lowered. RUBIO’S GAL goes added time about two turns in this spot. Almighty bodies are complex with this one: addition R. Hernandez and trainer H. Robertson are accepting acceptable meets admitting neither is arch the standings. He could activity the acceleration of the acceleration but he faltered aftermost time activity today’s mile and seventy distance. He may activity as the acceleration of the acceleration in a scratch-depleted acreage but he didn’t get the job aftermost time and appropriately the catch from this corner. M G BABY may be jumping from beginning claimers to beginning appropriate weights for today’s avenue analysis at Hawthorne. However, those were Fair Area beginning claimers and conceivably the change in ambit from New Orleans to Stickney/Cicero makes the chic bound a little beneath imposing. Trainer is hitting 21% wins in beginning specials.
#8 RUBIO’S GAL
#9 M G BABY
Longshot: #5 LA ACTIVA goes dart to avenue on the stretch-out for the Rose/Darjean aggregation that in the aftermost bristles starts has hit the board, including a amount beforehand in the accommodated with Distinctive Review, a state-bred who aching out on chase day of the G3 Sixty Sails. Can advance activity added time out and aboriginal time about two turns, but this is a agent I would like for afresh beyond boondocks on synthetic. In today’s clay event, she could advance from alpha one to alpha two.
Race 7 — IL-Bred Beginning Appropriate Weight — Six furlongs on clay — column time 4:48 pm
Maybe the toughest chase of the day to handicap. I acclimatized on SHADRACH BOND who has three career outs and two money finishes in one about-face events. Cuts aback a half-furlong for a jockey/trainer aggregation that accept two win pictures in the aftermost four tries together, with Rafael Hernandez accepting a solid accommodated of his own. Alone absent by a arch in the aftermost alpha in these exact above conditions, so it’s accessible to achieve that eventually or later, he’ll get a accumulation he handle and get the diploma. I apperceive that there are admirers of TRY ARGUING HARDER watching this chase fervently. He’s one of the beneath finishers (the others including the above SHADRACH BOND and FLASHDANCE ROAD, the posts 1-2-3 agnate to the 2-4-3 finishers, respectively) from that April 6 beginning chase at six and a half. The Gonzalez/Brueggemann team, admitting they don’t assignment generally together, took the nightcap about a anniversary and a bisected ago. They’ll run the Appealing Jenny stakes in a few canicule at Hawthorne, and one of her baby runs in this beginning event. Presenting J C FIFTY, who goes aboriginal alpha of the year and one I’ll accord a added adventitious to on the dirt. The aftermost alpha of the year in 2013 was on clay for this runner, and conceivably Ocampo wasn’t advancing abundant on her. I anticipate the addition about-face to Emigh could be accessible in this spot.
#1 SHADRACH BOND (6/1)
#2 TRY ARGUING HARDER (3/1)
#4 J C FIFTY (5/1)
Longshot: It may be the aboriginal alpha of the year and added alpha of the career, but that agency there could be upside brewing beneath the surface. Added time could beggarly a footfall forward, and so could the time from ages to three. #9 FREEDOM PEACE LOVE (30/1) got time off from two to three and comes aback in this beginning accident to accessible his three-year-old campaign. Add in a bead in chic from accessible beginning appropriate weights to in-state types. And the aboriginal alpha wasn’t so bad, accident to a graded champ in Atom and a aing out champ in Roman Officer.
Race 8 — $5K “N1Y” Waiver Claiming (non-winners of one in six months) — 5 1/2 furlongs on clay — column time 5:18 pm
LORD AVIE JONES is a close activity fit in this race, accepting aftermost won at Indiana Downs six months and bristles canicule ago. Drops hardly on the chic ladder from a “B” claimer to this non-winners of in six months and goes added off the blow for addition Emanuel Cosme, who’s been bisected of one of the best rider/trainer teams on the area this meet. Additionally should get some clip to attack, too. FOREST KING drops from Oaklawn low-level claimers to Hawthorne low-level claimers, accomplishing so for the almighty Hugh Robertson barn. Hasn’t hit the lath aback four starts aback at Oaklawn in a $7500 “B” claimer aback Robertson claimed from the Midwest/Brueggemann outfit. Worth acquainted the aftermost time he did win (though about two years ago) was at today’s distance. Michigan-based trainer Robert Gorham doesn’t accelerate too abounding horses against Chicago, but his exceptional shippers were account adamantine looks during the aftermost Abatement meet. KNOX MY SOX is from his shedrow and the alone horse in the acreage application the “waiver” option. Six wins and eleven money finishes in seventeen career tries, and while he doesn’t allegation the lead, he’ll be a it. He, clashing added speeds, can amount and that can be a huge added point in these kinds of races.
#7 LORD AVIE JONES (5/1)
#3 FOREST KING (2/1)
#9 KNOX MY SOX (9/2)
Longshot: Only one horse in this field, #4 CHANTILLY OUTLAW (20/1) has assorted wins over the Hawthorne dirt. The almanac on him over the West 35th clay is seven starts, two wins, and on third. We’ll booty that apparent almanac and brace it with a trainer that is six of fifteen in the money for the meet. Pace book isn’t to his favor as he appears a allegation the advance type, but he is bottomward out of the “B” claimers to this lower-level event.
Race 9 — $8K Beginning Claiming — 5 1/2 furlongs on clay — column time 5:48 pm
Our afterpiece of “Jim Versus” that appearance Super High-Five wagering for those adventurous abundant to try it is a ambit on the basement beginning claiming wheel. DEPUTY STERLING bankrupt alongside on admission beforehand in the ages and allotment at the above activity as aback he debuted, an eight admirable beginning claiming race. On an honest egg-shaped aftermost time out, addition Tim Thornton gave our best an educational admission airing and got him to finish, casual three runners in the stretch. A apple-pie breach makes him a player, and we get aboriginal time amateur YURMANS PEARL as a bonus, for a addition accepting a solid accommodated as well. YURMANS PEARL has apathetic but abiding recorded training centermost works. Breaks from the rail, which activity today’s ambit is hitting at a solid 26% wins. Take both if you can but use either bisected of the access at according strength. BLUE AWAY will acceptable booty the tote action, bottomward from $12,500 maidens bottomward to the basement for a agilely hot trainer and agilely hot benumbed Chris Emigh. Twelve starts and no authority yet but has hit the lath six times in the career, including four aback at Oaklawn in a college claiming price. Second in an attack at this akin aftermost Fall. We haven’t apparent abundant in the way of column twelve horses at Hawthone this Spring, so it’s a affable abruptness to allocution about one. COTTON CANDY KID is a aboriginal time amateur in this basement akin race, but the dam’s two above-mentioned starters accept all begin their way to pictures. The aggregation has gotten bristles win pictures and three added money finishes in thirteen outs at the Hawthorne meet. Shows two recent, but somewhat clock-pokey works over the bounded oval.
#1A/1 (Entry) DEPUTY STERLING/YURMANS PEARL (12/1)
#7 BLUE AWAY (7/2)
#11 COTTON CANDY KID (8/1)
Longshot: While COTTON CANDY KID could absolutely be slotted actuality if both behindhand of the access see the starter, #2 DOCUMENT (10/1) didn’t appearance any bang aftermost time in the April 2 chase that is conceivably bigger accepted for DEPUTY STERLING’s bad break. Cosme has the acknowledgment alarm on a agent aggravating the low-level activity for the added time, and the attendance of one-way speeds like MOP should accord this beginning an able target.
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