The assay of Friday’s and Saturday’s contest will blow on favorites and longshots, but the accent is on value, so I’ll be attractive mainly for amount horses who could be account a beeline win bet. I will accept an assay of Friday’s agenda on today, followed by Saturday’s agenda excluding the Classic, and again the Classic. Any updates in the aboriginal two analyses will be included in the consecutive column; or if I see annihilation in the morning training over the aing brace of canicule that changes my opinion.
JUVENILE TURF SPRINT – This chase is absolutely a guess, with seven of the 12 starters Europeans and four of the bristles American horses accomplished by Wesley Ward, all of whom competed at Royal Ascot. What is amazing is how Ward managed to get all four of his horses in the starting acreage with 28 horses pre-entered, and all of them cartoon able-bodied in posts 4, 6, 7, and 9. The alone one who ran able-bodied at Ascot is SHANG SHAN SHANG, who won the accumulation 2 Norfolk Stakes adjoin the boys, but hasn’t run since. The added three, CHELSEA CLOISTERS, STILLWATER COVE, and MOONLIGHT ROMANCE accept bounced aback and are in accomplished form. The classiest of the Europeans are SOLDIER’S CALL, champ of three above stakes and third, baffled a arch aftermost out in the accumulation 1 Prix de l’Abbaye on Arc day adjoin earlier horses, and the Aidan O’Brien-trained SO PERFECT, who has run big in all six of her starts, including a achievement in the accumulation 3 Balanchine Stakes at the Curragh and a attenuated defeat in the accumulation 1 Phoenix Stakes. But she may be compromised by the 10 post. O’Brien additionally sends out SERGEI PROKOFIEV, ablaze aboriginal in the year at Navan and Naas and again acceptable the accumulation 3 Cornwallis Stakes at Newmarket aftermost time out. Of Ward’s horses, Stillwater Cove exhausted Chelsea Cloisters in the Bolton Landing Stakes at Saratoga, but bootless to amplitude out to a mile in the brand 1 Natalma Stakes, backbreaking to accomplishment fifth. She should acknowledge bottomward aback to 5 1/2 furlongs and her appearance of active seems to fit able-bodied here. The big catechism mark is BULLETIN, who fabricated his admission in a stakes chase at Gulfstream and romped to a seven-length victory. It’s aloof a catechism whether he’s acclimatized abundant to booty on these horses. He is absolutely fast enough. If you feel accountable to bet this race, it would be astute to bet minimally. Soldier’s Call has to be the horse to exhausted active such a bang-up chase adjoin earlier horses, but you can never calculation out a Wesley Ward 2-year-old filly sprinting adjoin the boys. Acceptable luck amid his bunch. But attractive for appropriate amount I like the curtailment bend of STILLWATER COVE, who should be able lay off the clip and accomplish a backward run. And she gets Irad Ortiz back, who won the Bolton Landing on her.
JUVENILE FILLIES TURF – This chase is consistently advanced open. The best Frankel Filly EAST, who exhausted colts in the accumulation 3 Prix Thomas Bryon, drew cavalcade 14, so that should accommodation her. The Aidan O’Brien-trained JUST WONDERFUL is advancing off a beautiful achievement in the accumulation 2 Rockfel Stakes at Newmarket and looks absorbing in here. Addition boxy European is LILY’S CANDLE, advancing off a achievement in the accumulation 1 Prix Marcel Boussac. Making her additional alpha in North America is LA PELOSA, who rallied in the final furlong to win the brand 1 Natalma Stakes at Woobine. The Euros are actual abysmal in here, with THE MACKEM BULLET advancing off big efforts in three accumulation races, inclusing a close defeat in the accumulation 1 Cheveley Park Stakes at Newmarket aftermost time out. All four Euros, however, arise to adopt close ground, which they will not get. The Americans are able-bodied represented, headed by best NEWSPAPEROFRECORD, accomplished by Chad Brown, who has won both her starts by huge margins, including a 6 1/2-length antic in the Miss Grillo Stakes. She loves acquiescent activity and no agnosticism will get that on Friday. Addition filly best in two starts is Jessamine Stakes champ CONCRETE ROSE. It looks boxy amid both those fillies. California will be represented by LADY PRANCEALOT, who came actuality from Europe and ran two bang-up abnormal in listed stakes at Del Mar and Santa Anita, and SIMMERING, who is two-for-three, including a achievement over Lady Prancealot at Del Mar afore finishing abaft her in the Surfer Girl Stakes aftermost time. Advancing from Canada in accomplished anatomy is MY GAL BETTY, champ of three of her four starts with a able additional in the Natalma. She seems to adulation the acquiescent ground, but cavalcade 13 will not advice her. My longshot alternative is BELLE LAURA, who assuredly drew a center appropriate cavalcade afterwards cartoon cavalcade 9 of 9, again 9 of 10, and assuredly 13 of 13 in the Jessamine Stakes. Yet she bankrupt from the clouds to accomplishment a able third. She will breach from cavalcade 8 this time; still not great, but it puts her in a far bigger position. Her beginning achievement at Churchill Downs was a actual able effort. If she can handle the accepted bendable to acquiescent arena she could be appropriate there at a huge price.
JUVENILE FILLIES – Acceptable luck amid the top bristles fillies in here. BELLAFINA, JAYWALK, SIPPICAN HARBOR, SERENGETI EMPRESS, RESTLESS RIDER are all brilliant, top-class fillies and anniversary one is a acceptable Eclipse champ with a victory. Four of these fillies are absorbing accumulation 1 winners and the other, Serengeti Empress, won a accumulation 2 by 19 1/2 lengths at Churchill Downs and a listed stakes by 13 1/2 lengths. The acceptable favorite, Bellafina, has to accomplish abiding she doesn’t get bent too advanced breaking from cavalcade 10, as she brand to be on or appropriate off the pace. She absolutely will outrun the two horses anon central her, but with Jaywalk, Serengeti Empress, and VIBRANCE all accepting acceptable speed, she could be four-wide activity into the turn. If the clip is hot or alike contentious, Spinaway champ Sippican Harbor should be aerial late. But we absolutely don’t apperceive what her active appearance is, and she bankrupt her beginning by 17 lengths on the advanced end, again was awkward aback at the alpha of the Spinaway and fabricated a affecting backward run from far aback to win activity away. Restless Rider is two-for-two at Churchill Downs, including an 11 1/4-length antic in the Debutante Stakes, has a two-turn chase beneath her belt afterwards acceptable the Alcibiades at Keeneland, and has the appropriate active style, sitting appropriate abaft the speed. Trainer Kenny McPeek is consistently alarming in Kentucky, and she ability be the amount horse in what promises to be a absolute barn burner. Sippican Harbor looks a bit aerial at 12-1 because her absolute potential. If you’re attractive for a acceptable hit and appetite to try to exhausted Bellafina, as able-bodied as Jaywalk and Serengeti Empress, an exacta box of RESTLESS RIDER and SIPPICAN HARBOR should pay a appropriate price.
JUVENILE TURF – This chase does not looks as able as the Juvenile Filly Turf, and, accept it or not, there is not a distinct Chad Brown horse in the field. The Euros are not as abysmal or as strong, and no one absolutely stands out to me. Two of the arch contenders, CURRENT, from the Todd Pletcher barn, and the Aidan O’Brien-trained ANTHONY VAN DYCK, drew posts 12 and 14, respectively, so they will accept to affected that and try to assignment out a acceptable trip. Godolphin’s LINE OF DUTY is a alarming horse afterwards acceptable the accumulation 3 Prix du Conde at Deauville, and the son of Galileo has never been worse than additional in four career starts. His 10-1 allowance assume appealing aerial in this acreage and he should not be ignored. With a mile and an eighth chase already beneath his belt, he has a abundant foundation beneath him, is all class, and will booty a lot beating. The American horse I like is alone listed at 5-1, which makes it difficult to acquisition a bomb in here. That is FORTY UNDER, who displayed abundant professionalism and patience, cat-and-mouse for allowance and again assuredly extricating himself from cartage and cloudburst it on in the amplitude to win the Pilgrim Stakes, active bottomward the With Anticipation Stakes additional SOMELIKEITHOTBROWN, who had opened a two-length advance at the eighth pole. And he did it over the acquiescent arena he acceptable will appointment on Friday. There is a 30-1 attempt who bears watching. THE BLACK ALBUM began his career in the French provinces, acceptable alert and finishing third in his career debut. He was again beatific to Deauville, area he was fourth in the Prix Francois Boutin at seven furlongs afore branch to Longchamp, area he agitated the seven-furlong Prix la Rochette at 16-1. He was challenged in the final furlong but afraid on tenaciously to win by a nose. This is addition big footfall up in class, but for 30-1 he does accept some upside and is improving, and could abide to advance addition out to a mile. That is your longshot special. As for Forty Under, he should be included in all exotics, but acceptable will be too low to bet beeline win, at atomic for those attractive for a price. But there is a lot to like about him.
JUVENILE – It’s activity to be boxy assault brand 1 winners GAME WINNER and COMPLEXITY, apery East and West. I ranked the Juvenile horses as abeyant Kentucky Derby affairs in a contempo cavalcade and ranked CODE OF HONOR No. 1 and DUELING No. 3. Not alone do both these colts attending to be archetypal material, they accept a appealing acceptable attempt to win the Juvenile or at atomic be appropriate there. Code of Honor is accomplished by Shug McGaughey and he absolutely will be bet, and absolutely can agitated the two favorites. But Dueling is listed at a acceptable 20-1. On paper, he has communicable up to do if he is activity to attempt with these horses, but, visually, I admired what I saw in his beginning achievement at Santa Anita, and that was reaffirmed watching him amble over the Churchill Downs surface, which he seemed to relish. He has a actual aqueous way of affective and aloof has a attending of chic about him. Of course, he’ll additionally accept to argue with above stakes winners KNICKS GO and MIND CONTROL. I would additionally accede SIGNALMAN as a accepted longshot afterwards his afflicted additional in the Breeders’ Futurity, accepting bumped appealing soundly, accident his activity briefly, and shrugging it off, but cavalcade 14 is a bit troublesome. The added longshot I like is the Chad Brown-trained STANDARD DEVIATION, who I additionally had ranked appealing aerial as a Derby horse. Afterwards an absorbing off-the-turf beginning achievement activity seven furlongs at Saratoga in his career debut, he drew cavalcade 13 in the Breeders’ Futurity and alone way out of it afore putting in a abiding assemblage to accomplishment third in an accomplished performance. He looks to be a alive horse in the exotics. So my two longshots in actuality are DUELING and STANDARD DEVIATION, the closing a bottom amount at 12-1, if not to win again to hit the board. But for my accurate longshot appropriate for win and in the exotics, it has to be Dueling.
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