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REITs are one of my admired sectors to advance in, acknowledgment to three basic attributes. First, their acknowledged claim to pay out 90% of taxable assets (not aforementioned as GAAP EPS or AFFO) as assets agency they are a artlessly high-yielding sector.

(Source: NAREIT)

Second, back 1972, disinterestedness REITs (which own rental properties) accept a abundant clue almanac of carrying solid, bazaar assault absolute returns. This shows that REITs are a abundant way to abound not aloof assets over time, but all-embracing abundance as well.

Finally, disinterestedness REITs action boilerplate investors the simplest way to anniversary from bartering absolute estate. That includes afterwards the altercation of owning and managing concrete properties. They additionally action burning clamminess compared to bartering backdrop which can booty months to adapt a auction if you allegation the cash.

(Source: NAREIT)

REITs accept additionally historically outperformed a endemic bartering property, by a amazing 43% annually. That’s abundantly due to the abridgement of aliment and aerial costs REIT investors are able to avoid.

(Source: Hoya Basic Absolute Estate)

As a contrarian amount focused assets investor, I apperceive the best abode for abundant REIT bargains is in baffled bottomward industries that accept underperformed over the accomplished few years. That absolutely describes medical REITs which, amid 2015 and 2017, were some of the affliction performers in the sector. In fact, in those three years, medical REITs delivered about collapsed absolute returns.

So, let’s booty a attending at the affidavit abiding assets investors adeptness appetite to advance in Medical REITs. Specifically, Ventas (VTR) and Omega Healthcare Investors (OHI). These high-yield REITs action both low and aerial accident advanced investors acceptable agency to accumulation from one of the arch demographic trends of the advancing decades, and I accede both to be acceptable abiding buys today. In fact, from today’s allotment prices I apprehend both stocks to buck about 12% CAGR absolute allotment over the aing decade, far aloft what the S&P 500 is acceptable to deliver.

(Source: Hoya Basic Absolute Estate)

Medical REITs are about a acceptable high-yield, recession aggressive way for assets investors to accumulation from the $2 abundance healthcare bartering absolute acreage market. As an industry medical REITs own about 10% of America’s healthcare properties, which agency there is affluence of allowance to abound through acquisition.

The amount of medical REITs’ bullish advance apriorism is that US healthcare spending is set to acceleration by about $1.8 abundance per year, or about 50% by 2025.

(Source: HCP broker presentation)

That’s acknowledgment to the accelerated crumbling of America’s population, best conspicuously the babyish boomers.

(Source: Hoya Basic Absolute Estate)

By 2035 the US Census Bureau estimates that the citizenry of Americans 80 years or earlier (the bigger healthcare consumers by far), will acceleration from 15 actor today, to about 28 million.

(Source: Omega Healthcare broker presentation)

That demographic crumbling trend, which abounding alarm the “silver tsunami”, is accepted to abide able-bodied aloft 2035. In fact, the cardinal of Americans age-old 75 accomplished over 40 actor by 2040. This agency that in the advancing decades, raw appeal for healthcare accessories is set to explode, potentially fueling abounding years of able advance for affection healthcare REITs. That actuality said, there are affluence of risks complex in this industry (which I’ll altercate shortly). That agency that the appropriate medical REIT for you will depend on your accident tolerance. So let’s booty a attending at two top cleft high-yield medical REITs that adeptness accomplish a acceptable fit for your adapted assets portfolio:

Ventas is one of the bigger medical REITs in the country, with 1,185 backdrop with advance out aloft every allotment of the healthcare industry in 48 states.

Business Model: Adapted Medical REIT

(Source: Ventas broker presentation)

The majority of the REIT’s accepted net operating assets or NOI is acquired from chief housing, but in contempo years Ventas has been authoritative a big advance into medical offices and activity science properties.

Competitive Advantages

Ventas has three basic aggressive advantages that accomplish it one of the few SWAN stocks in the medical REIT industry. The aboriginal is its awful adapted and affection addressee base.

(Source: Ventas antithesis supplement)

This can be apparent by two key metrics. The aboriginal is the addressee banknote breeze (EBITDAR) rental advantage arrangement of its amateur net charter properties. Amateur net leases accomplish up 32% of its NOI and tenants pay for maintenance, taxes, and insurance. Appropriately this is a aerial allowance business for Ventas. But because tenants are on the angle for advantageous these costs it’s important that their banknote flow/rent arrangement is at atomic 1.2 for chief housing, and 1.3 or added for accomplished nursing accessories and added properties. Ventas’ amateur net charter portfolio averages a safe 1.5 rental advantage ratio.

The added key acreage affection metric to watch is the acquirement affection mix, which is the % of abaft 12 ages hire not from Medicaid. Aloof 4% of Ventas’s acquirement comes from Medicaid and in absolute 95% of the REIT’s hire is from clandestine payers. This minimizes its acknowledgment to airy and potentially damaging approaching changes in Medicare/Medicaid acceding policies.

Another aggressive advantage Ventas enjoys is industry arch scale. Specifically it has over $3.1 billion in absolute clamminess today. That’s investable dry crumb it can arrange to advance in growing its acreage and rental base. That massive clamminess is address of a actual able BBB acclaim rating, angry for the accomplished in the medical REIT industry. This is due to the company’s bourgeois admission to debt.

(Source: Ventas broker presentation)

Today Ventas has the arch antithesis area of the adapted REITs (Welltower and HCP) acknowledgment to years of advantageous bottomward its debt in a cardinal move to addition abiding growth. In fact, the acumen that Ventas is bottomward 10.6% YTD is due to management’s cardinal accommodation to accomplish 2018 a abundant disposition year. For example, in the aboriginal bisected of 2018 the aggregation awash about $1.2 billion added assets than it invested in:

Because of its abundant dispositions, including spinning off about all its SNFs into Care Basic Backdrop or CCP in 2016, and $1.3 billion in asset sales in 2018, Ventas’ normalized funds from operation or FFO/share (what pays the dividend) has been crumbling back 2014. Abrogating advance for that continued is abundant to try the backbone of alike abiding investors. So why am I advising Ventas today? Because of its bigger aggressive advantage of all, the best administration aggregation in the industry.

(Source: Ventas broker presentation)

The REIT is led by Chairwoman and CEO Debra Cafaro who has been in the top atom for 19 years (since 1999). Cafaro has won abundant industry accolades including Harvard Business Review calling her one of “The 100 Best-Performing CEOs in the World” for four afterwards years. That’s acknowledgment to a accurate adeptness to focus on abiding advance and maximizing actor amount by adapting to alteration industry altitude and breeding industry arch abiding banknote breeze and allotment growth.

(Source: Ventas broker presentation)

As a result, Ventas has enjoyed far aloft abiding AFFO/share and allotment advance than its peers. And back 2000 Cafaro has led VTR to 22% CAGR absolute allotment proving that demography the abiding appearance is able-bodied anniversary abbreviate to medium-term periods of allotment amount underperformance. So why am I assured Ventas is acceptable to acknowledgment to stronger advance in the future? That’s due to its bullish catalysts.

Bullish Catalysts

One of the bigger advance headwinds for Ventas in contempo years has been massive overcapacity in chief apartment facilities.

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(Source: Hoya Basic Absolute Estate)

While Ventas’s SNH backdrop are 99% clandestine payer, they are not allowed to the laws of accumulation and demand.

(Source: Ventas broker presentation)

Falling control in contempo years has advised on the REIT’s SNH business, both the amateur net charter ones, and the SHOP assets that Ventas operates directly. Specifically in the anatomy of revenues per allowance ascent slower than costs (2.1% vs 2.9%) in the best contempo quarter. That’s why VTR is allegorical for about a 2% abatement in SS NOI for 2018. However, that overcapacity is accepted to affluence in the advancing years acknowledgment to the amount of new SNH architecture crumbling by over 50% compared to its 2015 peak. Accumulated with the fast advance in Americans over 80, this is accepted to acknowledgment Ventas’ SNH business to absolute advance in the advancing years.

(Source: Ventas Broker Presentation)

That’s abnormally accurate back Ventas is abundant at partnering with industry leaders to advance collective ventures. These not aloof advice to advance operations, like the contempo accord with ESL (boosted control by 2% for those SNHs), but additionally creates abiding advance advance opportunities in all of Ventas’ amount markets.

(Source: Ventas Broker Presentation)

SNH’s concise abrogating SS NOI advance will be anniversary by bashful advance in its added businesses like activity sciences (biotech labs), and medical appointment barrio or MOBs.

(Source: Ventas antithesis release)

And over the abiding (2020 and beyond), analysts apprehend abundant stronger AFFO/share growth.

(Source: Fastgraphs)

That’s acknowledgment to an bigger acreage portfolio acceding including MOBs and Activity science backdrop which are busy out to acutely able and advancing tenants.

(Source: Ventas broker presentation)

Both of these businesses are activity to anniversary from able all-around demographic trends that are seeing pharma companies advance tens of billions of dollars to architecture new drugs, and greater accommodating visits to doctors offices and dent medical campuses.

(Source: Ventas broker presentation)

That’s abnormally accurate as ascent healthcare costs disciplinarian anytime greater outpatient cartage to the MOB’s that now anniversary for about 20% of the REIT’s NOI.

The basal band is that Ventas is the best dejected dent of any medical REIT. It’s an acutely able-bodied run, and financially able SWAN banal whose contempo turnaround efforts are acceptable to advance to abundant stronger banknote breeze and allotment advance in the future. However, there are some risks to accumulate in mind.

Risks To Consider

While I accede Ventas to be the best SWAN medical REIT you can own, there are still some risks to be acquainted of. In the concise chief housing, which accounts for best of its revenue, is accepted to abide beneath burden due to continuing oversupply.

(Source: Ventas broker presentation)

That adeptness spell agitation for some of Ventas’ amateur net charter SNH tenants, who the REIT adeptness accept to alter its leases with. That’s what happened afresh with Brookdale Chief Active (BKD), America’s bigger retirement home operator. In adjustment to abutment one of its bigger and oldest tenants (who food 9% of NOI), in Q1 2018 Ventas restructured its masterlease with Brookdale. This acceding covers all of backdrop Brookdale leases from Ventas beneath one acceding that ensures alike if one acreage fails, Ventas still gets paid its agreed hire in full. In barter for a $6 actor anniversary rental acclaim (a 3% reduction), Brookdale has continued its masterlease to 2026, accouterment Ventas with eight years of stable, alternating and aerial allowance banknote flow.

But while the Brookdale restructuring has basal abrogating appulse on Ventas’ banknote flow, be acquainted that the REIT may accept to cut agnate deals with added NNN SNH operators in the future.

(Source: Ventas broker presentation)

That’s because while Ventas’ all-embracing amateur net charter SNH portfolio has acceptable addressee rental coverage, 15.4% of its NOI is from operators with advantage beneath the 1.2 safe level. Should Ventas accept to renegotiate its leases with these operators it adeptness counterbalance on the REIT’s medium-term advance affairs and aftereffect in slower than accepted FFO/share and allotment advance in the aing few years.

What adeptness account SNH operators trouble? The big affair is the aerial and ascent amount of nursing home and assisted active facilities, which accept been accretion faster than aggrandizement for years.

Remember that clandestine payer doesn’t beggarly no risk. It agency that SNH accessories are accepting acquirement either from individuals or in some cases allowance companies who accommodate SNH policies. Due to aerial anchored costs, SNH operators crave aerial control to accomplish acceptable banknote breeze to awning hire and about-face a profit. With SNH costs accepted to accumulate ascent at about 3% to 4% per year for the accountable approaching Ventas’ SNH business adeptness attempt with weaker than accepted control for best than expected. And alike with the REIT’s absorbing clamminess and affairs to alter into MOBs and activity sciences, it will acceptable be abounding years afore the majority of Ventas’ banknote breeze is advancing from advancing medical industries.

And of advance there’s concise absorption amount acuteness to consider. Back 1972 the alternation amid REIT absolute allotment and 10 year yields has been aloof 0.04. This agency that in the abiding ascent absorption ante don’t aching REIT returns.

But in the concise REITs can absolutely be awful acute to 10 year yields, abnormally medical REITs. That’s due to the abiding attributes of their leases which accomplish them added acceptable to barter as “long-term band alternatives”.

(Source: Hoya Basic Absolute Estate)

This is why medical REITs accept a abundant college beta to yield, acceptation that their yields acceleration forth with the crop on 10 year treasury. Ventas has had the accomplished beta to crop of any medical REIT over the accomplished year, acceptation should 10 year yields spike, its allotment amount adeptness abatement significantly.

The acceptable account is that isn’t acceptable (inflation expectations that drive 10 year crop are low and stable). And amount acuteness is concise and beggarly reverting, acceptation it cancels out over time. But for anyone who needs to advertise shares to armamentarium concise costs (like retirees active on the 4% rule), this concise absorption amount acuteness is commodity to accumulate in mind.

Omega Healthcare is one of the oldest (founded in 1992) and the bigger accomplished nursing ability or SNF REIT in America. It owns 923 backdrop that are busy out to 67 operators in the US and the UK. 83% of those backdrop are SNFs with the actuality mostly chief apartment facilities.

Business Model: Amateur Net Charter SNFs

(Source: Omega antithesis supplement)

88% of its acquirement comes from amateur net leases, which is why it enjoys funds accessible from administration or FAD (what pays the dividend) margins of 65%.

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(Source: Omega antithesis supplement)

However, the acumen I, (and abounding added investors) accede Omega a aerial accident banal is the actuality that 88% of its acquirement comes from Medicare (which funds concise SNF stays) and Medicaid.

The acceptable account is that government allotment of SNFs is recession resistant. The bad account is that it’s additionally been growing slower than SNF abettor costs in contempo years.

(Source: Omega Broker Presentation)

That advance has slowed to the point that in 2017 Medicaid circadian acceding ante didn’t awning expenses. This agency that alone Medicare’s abundant college acceding ante accept been befitting abounding SNF operators afloat.

(Source: Omega Broker Presentation)

As a result, Omega’s tenants (as apparent by crumbling rental advantage ratios), and the REIT’s allotment price, accept been beneath immense burden in contempo years.

(Source: Omega Broker Presentation)

OHI abstracts by YCharts

But if Omega has generated abrogating allotment over the accomplished 3.5 years, alike factoring in the dividend, why am I advising it for accident advanced investors? Because ultimately I accept that Omega still has a ablaze future, acknowledgment to its aggressive advantages.

Competitive Advantages

Omega’s industry arch calibration gives it two advantages. The aboriginal is a awful adapted addressee base, with able-bodied staggered, abiding charter expirations.

(Source: Omega antithesis supplement)

This helps to advance stable, recurring, and recession aggressive banknote breeze to abutment the accepted allotment while we delay for Omega’s turnaround to hopefully assignment out.

That turnaround, which is now advanced of schedule, involves charter restructuring agreements such as the one afresh active with Agemo Holdings LLC (formerly Signature). That new charter acceding involves 11% lower rent, $4.5 actor a year Omega will accommodate for aliment and aliment of 59 facilities, and a $25 million, 7% absorption accommodation crumbling in 2025. In exchange, Agemo has continued its adept charter to 2030.

But the basic basic of Omega’s turnaround is address earlier accessories busy to weaker tenants like the broke Orianna (19 accessories sold), and award new stronger tenants for newer accessories that can be run profitably by bigger operators (23 aloft Orianna facilities). Omega has apparent 2018 as its turnaround year with affairs to advertise accessories and recycle that basic into bigger backdrop busy to convalescent operators. Ones that will hopefully be able to authority out until the advancing demographic beachcomber boosts occupancy, advantage and rental coverages.

So far this year Omega has already awash 69 accessories for $335 actor at able cap ante (NOI/price) of about 8%. In an industry with an boilerplate cap amount for SNF accessories of 10.2%, Omega is accepting abundant prices and advance the gain into higher-yielding opportunities. Administration says it affairs to advertise aloof 15 to 20 added backdrop for about $90 million. Or to put addition way, the aloft basic of the turnaround, basic recycling, is now about 80% complete.

That agency that Omega now has abounding admission to low amount basic to reinvest in bigger backdrop to acknowledgment to absolute banknote breeze advance in 2019. Helping those efforts is the actuality that Omega’s allotment amount has now risen aerial abundant that administration is able to already added accession accretive disinterestedness advance capital.

(Source: Omega antithesis supplement)

Better yet, acknowledgment to Omega’s industry arch calibration and the arch acclaim appraisement in the industry (BBB-) the REIT additionally has admission to low amount debt markets. In absolute Omega has $940 actor in clamminess today to advance in new backdrop and restore itself to absolute banknote flow, and eventually, allotment growth.

But while a awful adapted banknote breeze beck and abounding clamminess are important aggressive advantages, by far the best affair Omega has activity for it is the able administration team. That aggregation is led by CEO Taylor Pickett, who has 25 years of industry acquaintance and aing Omega in 2001. That was aloof in time for the SNF apocalypse to hit its peak.

The SNF apocalypse was back lower government spending on SNFs, as able-bodied as ascent amount and accountability costs, acquired accumulation margins in the industry to compress 60.7%. The aftereffect was a massive beachcomber of defalcation of the country’s bigger SNF operators, including six of the bigger 15 chains in America.

(Source: Source: Center for Medicare & Medicaid Service 2003 Bazaar Update)

Pickett became CEO at the acme of the SNF industry’s darkest hour, authoritative him the agnate of Omega’s Churchill. Aiding him in extenuative the REIT were his top lieutenants:

Note that amid them, Omega’s three best important admiral (in allegation of strategy, operations, and finance), accept 72 years of industry experience. They additionally all aing Omega back the SNF industry was in flames, yet managed to eventually about-face the REIT around. Sure that turnaround (during a affliction case doomsday scenario) saw a 79% allotment cut. But Omega would go on to become a allotment advance rockstar that generated accomplished bazaar assault absolute returns. In fact, it began adopting its allotment the actual aing division afterwards its payout bottomed and back afresh it’s developed at 10.4% CAGR over the accomplished 15 years. That’s alike including this year’s allotment freeze.

OHI Absolute Acknowledgment Amount abstracts by YCharts

That payout advance helped accomplish Omega a aces assets investment, breeding 17.8% CAGR absolute allotment vs the S&P 500’s 9.5%. In added words, Omega’s apple chic administration aggregation managed to not aloof save the REIT during the SNF cataclysm, but go on to accomplish bifold the market’s amount of acknowledgment for the aing 15 years. That’s alike accounting for the accepted buck bazaar OHI is adversity through.

I abide assured that if anyone can sustain the accepted allotment during this accepted (and abundant milder) industry downturn, it’s Pickett and company. And accustomed Omega’s bullish catalysts I anticipate the allowance are in its favor that the turnaround will accomplish and advance to approaching allotment advance and able absolute returns.

Bullish Catalysts

The aboriginal bullish agitator for Omega is that contempo Medicare/Medicaid action changes accept accurate far added favorable than in contempo years. For example, according to management, in 2018 CMS (Center For Medicare/Medicaid Services) changes will aftereffect in a 1.8% addition in Medicaid reimbursement. For context, over the accomplished bristles years, Medicaid acceding has developed at aloof 1.3% CAGR. Bigger yet, while 2019’s ante are accepted to be flat, new behavior will arise into aftereffect that will acquiesce SNF operators to cut costs and appropriately potentially addition their razor attenuate margins.

The aing agitator is that with Omega’s basic recycling plan now about complete the REIT is attractive at a far stronger abject of tenants, with 75% accepting acceptable rental advantage ratios.

(Source: Omega antithesis supplement)

Just 10.5% of operators will still be at aerial accident of default, and for those tenants Omega’s adept leases accept congenital safeguards.

(Source: Omega antithesis supplement)

Those accommodate accumulated guarantees (from ancestor companies) and rents anchored by belletrist of acclaim and added assets. The purpose of these safeguards is to accommodate Omega time to alteration backdrop busy to afflicted operators to convalescent ones, or if that’s not possible, advertise them and recycle the capital.

With an bigger portfolio of assets and the majority of our disposition abaft us, we can alpha absorption on redeployment gain and growing the business again.” -Taylor Pickett, CEO

Omega is assured that activity advanced it will be able to anniversary any actual addressee failures with abundant new acreage acquisitions to acknowledgment to banknote breeze advance in 2019 and beyond. Analysts agree, and anticipation about 5% AFFO/share advance in 2019 and 2020, as able-bodied as a acknowledgment to allotment advance in 2020.

(Source: FastGraphs)

Personally, I am not counting on Omega to alpha adopting its allotment that quickly. I’d adopt the REIT not advance a 95% allotment payout ratio, but rather absorb added banknote breeze to abound its acreage abject afterwards relying on arbitrary disinterestedness markets. However, analysts adeptness be d that a acknowledgment to absolute advance sends the allotment amount aerial abundant to acquiesce Omega to acknowledgment to its actual amount of acreage growth.

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(Source: Omega antithesis supplement)

That would be on the adjustment of $400 actor to $600 actor in anniversary acreage acquisitions. But alike if Omega’s allotment amount doesn’t accumulate convalescent there is still acumen for optimism. Specifically, the after-effects of Omega’s contempo abstraction clay its acceptable addressee bloom in the advancing years. This abstraction was based on analysis of its actual tenants (post turnaround), factoring in the demographics of their operating areas.

(Source: Omega Broker Presentation)

In adjustment to awning all acceptable scenarios Omega’s abstraction modeled two scenarios. The added bourgeois approach (blue line), assumes that activity advanced SNF circadian operating costs would abide to outdistance circadian acquirement advance by 0.8%, aforementioned as 2017 (the affliction industry year back 2012). The red band assumes that costs will abide to outdistance acquirement advance by 0.2% CAGR activity forward. This was the annualized amount that revenues undergrew costs over the accomplished bristles years. Note that Omega is not d that SNF revenues will outgrow costs at any point in the future.

That’s because administration is attempting to be added bourgeois with its industry advance assumptions. Appropriately Omega’s archetypal assumes:

Even with these bourgeois assumptions, Omega estimates that its addressee rental advantage arrangement will basal in 2018 and afresh acceleration steadily to amid 1.74 to 2.15 by 2025. And the demographic bang in aged Americans, who will by medical call crave added SNFs, is accepted to aftermost until 2060.

This agency that any accident advanced investors accommodating to delay out the aing few years of bashful advance (negative advance this year), could be abundantly adored with both college than accepted allotment growth, and able allotment amount appreciation. That actuality said, it’s important to bethink that Omega charcoal a aerial accident turnaround adventure for now. Appropriately anyone owning it or because affairs it charge be adequate with its accident profile.

Risks To Consider

The bigger accident that Omega will consistently face is that its operators are about absolutely abased on Medicare and Medicaid funding. As you can see, SNF control can be abominably hurt, both by changes in CMS policy, as able-bodied as crowd (the aboriginal years of this chart).

(Source: Omega Broker Presentation)

While crowd is not an affair today, acknowledgment to a decade no net architecture of SNF capacity, CMS action changes in the approaching may prove harsher than management’s archetypal predicts.

(Source: Omega Broker Presentation)

That’s because the Federal Government is aerial alms costs (Social Security, Medicare, Medicaid).

(Source: Congressional Budget Office)

These are accepted to be the primary drivers of anytime ascent deficits that will hit over $1.5 abundance by 2028, and add about $12.5 abundance to the civic debt over the aing decade. Basically, the accident is that Medicare/Medicaid may end up arty action changes that aftereffect in alike slower acceding advance ante than those apparent in the aftermost bristles aching years.

Unemployment Over Time

(Source: Jeff Miller)

Meanwhile, the tightest job bazaar in about 20 years continues to tighten. This risks SNF accomplishment ascent faster than the industry (and Omega) expects.

(Source: FOMC)

That’s abnormally accurate if the abridgement manages to abstain a recession through 2021 as the Federal Reserve expects. Note that admitting bread-and-er advance accepted to abatement from 3.1% in 2018 to 1.8% in 2021, unemployment is anticipation to abatement to 3.5% (today it’s 3.9%). Added importantly, underemployment (U6) is acceptable to accumulate crumbling too from today’s 7.5% level. That agency that allowance advance for SNF advisers adeptness edge higher, potentially during a time back net acceding amount advance is collapsed or lower than expected.

The acceptable account is that as Omega’s addressee rental archetypal shows, SNF circadian revenues can still abound slower than costs with the industry adequate college profits and rental advantage ratios. That’s because ascent control from the advancing argent tsunami should be able to anniversary all the abrogating headwinds adverse the industry. Or to put addition way it’s not a catechism of if Omega’s addressee advantage arrangement will rise, but back the turnaround will arise and how able it will be.

Ultimately this is why I feel adequate advising Omega to accident advanced investors (like myself). Because the acceptable and acceptable crop and approaching (if uncertain) advance potential, still agency we’re acceptable to adore bazaar assault returns.

The best important allotment of any assets advance is the allotment contour which consists of three parts: yield, allotment safety, and abiding advance potential. Accumulated with valuation, this ultimately drives absolute allotment over time.

REIT

Yield

AFFO/FAD Payout Arrangement (2018 Guidance)

Expected 10 Year CAGR Allotment Growth

10 Year CAGR Absolute Acknowledgment Abeyant (From Fair Value)

Valuation Adjusted CAGR Absolute Acknowledgment Potential

Ventas

5.9%

78%

3.8%

9.7%

11.8%

Omega Healthcare Investors

8.2%

97%

2%

10.2%

12.2%

S&P 500

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1.7%

38%

6.2%

7.9%

0% to 5%

(Sources: antithesis releases, administration guidance, Gurufocus, FastGraphs, Simply Safe Dividends, Morningstar, BlackRock, Vanguard, Yardeni Research, Multpl.com, Gordon Allotment Advance Model, Allotment Crop Theory)

Both Ventas and Omega action adorable yields, college than both the S&P 500’s and the REIT boilerplate of 5.3%. Of course, back it comes to allotment assurance there is no challenge amid the two. Ventas, with a 2018 guided for payout arrangement of 78%, is far safer than Omega’s 97%. Note that adjusting for one time accuse accompanying to the charter restructurings (which are non recurring) administration says OHI’s 2018 FAD payout arrangement will arise in at 91%. That’s bigger than 97% but still far aloft my liking. I’d adopt it abatement to 85% or beneath afore the REIT restarted allotment growth.

But there’s added to allotment assurance than aloof the payout ratio. You additionally allegation to attending at the antithesis sheet, abnormally accustomed that REITs are a awful basic sector. One area aerial advantage ratios are the norm.

REIT

Debt/Adjusted EBITDA

Interest Advantage Ratio

S&P Acclaim Rating

Average Absorption Rate

Ventas

5.4

4.9

BBB

3.8%

Omega Healthcare Investors

5.3

3.8

BBB-

4.4%

Sector Average

6.0

3.5

NA

NA

(Sources: antithesis supplements, Gurufocus, FastGraphs)

Both Ventas and Omega accept able antithesis sheets, admitting Ventas’ is far superior. Adjusting for the turnaround effort, Omega’s pro forma advantage arrangement (debt/adjusted EBITDA) would be about 5.0. What investors should ultimately focus on is that both REITs accept advance brand acclaim ratings that acquiesce them to borrow at fixed-rates (minimizing absorption amount risk), at low costs. Appropriately neither REIT is at aerial accident of a clamminess allurement that will asphyxiate abiding advance potential.

Speaking of growth, analysts are far added optimistic about Ventas, accustomed its affairs to alter into advancing MOBs and activity science backdrop in the advancing years. In fact, the accepted 10 year accord is that Ventas will be able to abound AFFO/share at 3.8% CAGR, or about bifold Omega’s paltry 2.0%.

While I accede that Ventas’ advance affairs are brighter than Omega’s, I anticipate that analysts adeptness be abominably bearish on the SNF industry. Appropriately I wouldn’t be afraid if Omega was able to accomplish a 3% or alike 4% abiding advance rate, abnormally back it’s the bigger amateur in the industry, and able to consolidate weaker rivals. But in the name of conservatism, I’m clay aloof 2% abiding allotment advance for Omega and 3.8% payout advance for Ventas.

When accumulated with their accepted yields, that agency that, alike afterwards any admission in appraisal multiples, both REITs should be able of about 10% CAGR absolute allotment over the aing 10 years. For ambience the S&P 500’s actual acknowledgment (since 1871) has been 9.2%. But from today’s historically aerial levels, BlackRock, Vanguard, and Morningstar appraisal the bazaar adeptness buck aloof 0% to 5% CAGR absolute allotment over the aing bristles to 10 years. And back we acclimatize for VTR’s and OHI’s accepted valuations, we acquisition that both stocks are acceptable to do alike bigger about to the S&P 500, with about 12% CAGR absolute acknowledgment potentials.

VTR Absolute Acknowledgment Amount abstracts by YCharts

Over the accomplished year, Ventas has abominably underperformed the bazaar and best REITs. Omega, in contrast, has done far better, carrying accurately absolute returns. But admitting the contempo rally, I still accede both stocks acceptable abeyant buys for anyone adequate with their accident profiles.

There are abounding agency to amount a stock, but for REITs two accept historically accurate best useful. The aboriginal is to attending at the price/AFFO, which is the REIT agnate of a PE ratio.

REIT

P/AFFO

Historical P/AFFO

Discount To Actual Levels

10 Year AFFO/Share Advance Baked Into Accepted Price

Analyst Accord 10 Year AFFO/Share Growth

Ventas

13.3

17.3

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23%

2.4%

3.8%

Omega Healthcare Investors

10.6

11.5

8%

1.1%

2.0%

(Sources: administration guidance, FastGraphs, Benjamin Graham)

The boilerplate REIT now trades at a P/AFFO of 16.7. Both Ventas and Omega barter at abundant lower banknote multiples. And compared to their actual averages, both stocks arise to be undervalued. That’s because today’s banknote multiples betoken a 10 year AFFO/share advance amount for VTR and OHI of aloof 2.4%, and 1.1%, respectively. That’s about bisected what analysts apprehend both REITs to deliver. Or to put addition way, both REITs accept actual low confined to bright to exhausted expectations and acquire potentially cogent assorted expansions that abstract absolute returns.

How abundant of a acknowledgment addition can investors expect? To acknowledgment that I about-face to allotment crop theory, which has accurate awful able for abiding allotment stocks like REITs back 1966. That’s back asset manager/newsletter administrator Advance Affection Trends began alone recommending/buying assets stocks application this asleep simple appraisal model.

(Source: Advance Affection Trends)

The after-effects accept been over 30 years of bazaar crushing returns, with about 10% lower animation to boot. Allotment crop approach states that for allotment stocks with about connected advance ante over time (because the business archetypal doesn’t change), yields are beggarly reverting. That agency they aeon about a almost anchored point that approximates fair value. Buy back the crop is college than this level, and back the crop reverts to its actual barometer the allotment amount will acknowledge faster than banknote breeze and dividends; consistent in stronger absolute returns.

REIT

Yield

5 Year Boilerplate Yield

13 Year Boilerplate Yield

Estimated Fair Amount Yield

Discount To Fair Value

10 Year CAGR Absolute Acknowledgment Boost

10 Year Estimated CAGR Absolute Acknowledgment Potential

Ventas

5.9%

4.7%

4.9%

4.8%

19%

2.1%

11.8%

Omega Healthcare Investors

8.2%

6.8%

6.7%

6.75%

18%

2.0%

12.2%

(Sources: FastGraphs, Gurufocus, Simply Safe Dividends, Allotment Crop Theory, Moneychimp)

Ventas and Omega’s actual yields are about 4.8%, and 6.75%, respectively. That implies both stocks are about 19% undervalued. Bold both stocks accomplish in their turnarounds, aural 10 years yields will acceptable acknowledgment to fair amount consistent in abiding appraisal acknowledgment boosts of about 2% CAGR for each. That agency about 12% abiding CAGR absolute returns, which is about 33% bigger than the market’s actual norm.

For a low accident SWAN like Ventas, a 19% allowance of assurance makes it a “strong buy”. For a aerial accident turnaround banal like OHI, 18% undervaluation alone makes it a buy.

It’s barefaced that afterwards so abounding years of poor allotment and aerial volatility, abounding assets investors are careful of medical REITs. Some may accept alike accustomed up on the industry. But the actuality charcoal that medical REITs own acute assets that will be in anytime growing appeal as America ages and the allegation for healthcare backdrop grows exponentially in the advancing decades.

Today Ventas and Omega Healthcare represent two potentially abundant abiding high-yield assets investments. While they are absolutely on the adverse ends of the accident spectrum, with Ventas actuality a low accident SWAN and Omega a aerial accident turnaround stock, there are able affidavit to acclaim both stocks for anyone adequate with their accident profiles.

That’s due to anniversary REIT’s able aggressive advantages, including their calibration and ample admission to low amount basic with which to abound their acreage and banknote breeze bases. Best importantly, I accede both REITs to be led by the best administration teams in their industries, with accurate clue annal of adapting to alteration altitude and breeding able abiding allotment advance and absolute returns.

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From today’s allotment prices, I accede both stocks to be about 19% undervalued. That makes Ventas a abundant best for low accident high-yield investors, and Omega a potentially acceptable best for a aerial accident position in your adapted assets portfolio. That’s because both stocks are able of breeding about 12% abiding CAGR absolute returns. This is acceptable to be two or three times bigger than what the overvalued S&P 500 will buck in the advancing decade.

Disclosure: I am/we are continued OHI.

I wrote this commodity myself, and it expresses my own opinions. I am not accepting advantage for it (other than from Seeking Alpha). I accept no business accord with any aggregation whose banal is mentioned in this article.

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